Do NOT go for two because you missed a one point P.A.T previously,
Posted by John Reed on
When a team scores a TD then fails to kick the PAT, next time they score a TD, they go for 2.
.
WTF?
.
The rule for going for two is you do it when the probability of success is greater than twice the probability of getting one.
.
If you can succeed at two more than twice as often as you succeed at one, you should ALWAYS go for two.
.
What does failing to get one after one TD have to do with whether to go for two on the next? Not a damned thing.
.
Should you ever go for two when your success rate at that is not twice your going for one success rate? Yes. That is NEAR THE END OF A GAME in which case in is a working assumption In football, the most common working assumption is the onside kick. You do not do it because it will PROBABLY work. You do it because it is the ONLY WAY YOU CAN WIN.
.
The rules for when to go for two at the end of a game are in my clock management book. In fact, an entire chapter—13—is devoted to the PAT and it has the famous “card” used by coaches to decide when to go for two.
.
But my card is different in two ways: It says you do not use this damned card until there is only likely to be one more opponent score before the end of the game and that the card coaches have been using for years is wrong in some situations.
.
My card is correct. When I wrote the book I called a company that hands out that card to ask why their card differed from mine. They said they had no idea. Theirs had been handed down so long no one knew who figured it out and why. My book explains the reason behind every one of the twenty entries on the “card” in my book.
.
.
WTF?
.
The rule for going for two is you do it when the probability of success is greater than twice the probability of getting one.
.
If you can succeed at two more than twice as often as you succeed at one, you should ALWAYS go for two.
.
What does failing to get one after one TD have to do with whether to go for two on the next? Not a damned thing.
.
Should you ever go for two when your success rate at that is not twice your going for one success rate? Yes. That is NEAR THE END OF A GAME in which case in is a working assumption In football, the most common working assumption is the onside kick. You do not do it because it will PROBABLY work. You do it because it is the ONLY WAY YOU CAN WIN.
.
The rules for when to go for two at the end of a game are in my clock management book. In fact, an entire chapter—13—is devoted to the PAT and it has the famous “card” used by coaches to decide when to go for two.
.
But my card is different in two ways: It says you do not use this damned card until there is only likely to be one more opponent score before the end of the game and that the card coaches have been using for years is wrong in some situations.
.
My card is correct. When I wrote the book I called a company that hands out that card to ask why their card differed from mine. They said they had no idea. Theirs had been handed down so long no one knew who figured it out and why. My book explains the reason behind every one of the twenty entries on the “card” in my book.
.
Share this post
0 comment