Bengals won in OT but could have won in regulation with better clock management
Posted by John Reed on
Bengals RB just got hurt deliberately sliding at the one yard line. Correct clock management. Game is tied at 17. 1:31 left 2nd & goal They should try to run the clock down to :03 then kick the game-winning field goal so the game clock ends while the kick is in the air.
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But QB Burrows got a TD. That is actually WRONG. 1:29 left for Broncos to come back and tie or win. Bengals LOWERED their win probability by getting the TD instead of running the clock down as far as possible then kicking the FG.
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Broncos get TD with :08 left. Told ya. PAT good. Tie game. In OT, Bengals can win with a 33-yard FG. It hits the upright. Now 2:44 left. In their next possession, Bengals get a TD winning the game.
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QB Burrows allowed the game to go into OT. Had he not done that, he almost certainly would have won the game in regulation
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Now, let me address the issue of avoiding the OT entirely by running the game clock down as far as possible in regulation before the likely go-ahead FG.
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The guy who got hurt stopping at the one-yard line (Brown) stopped the clock. That was bad if it could have been avoided. He stopped it by getting hurt and staying on the ground thereby triggering an automatic Bengals time out, their final one. That saved the Broncos from using their one remaining time out.
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So the announcer is saying that Burrows needed to score the TD because the one remaining Broncos timeout would have prevented the Bengals from running the clock down to :03.
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Well, let’s see about that. But first, why does the ability to call one time out mean Bengals must score a TD. Even if they could not run the clock all the way down to :03 for the FG attempt. Even running it down to say :30 would make it harder for the Bengals to get into either FG range for a tie or to score a TD to win.
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So after the TO for the Bengals RB injury, it was second and goal at the Denver 1. 1:31 left. If Bengals take and knee and Broncos use their last TO, clock runs down to say 1:28. 3rd down take a knee clock runs down 40 seconds to :48 Bengals take another knee running the clock down to :45, fourth down and 40 second play clock is running. When the game clock gets to :08, kicker calls for the snap and kicks the FG using about three seconds and taking the game clock down to :05. Bengals now have the lead and must kickoff to Broncos with :05 left on the game clock.
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The game clock starts when a member of the receiving team touches the ball. So the Bengals should NOT kick into the end zone. By keeping the ball in the field of play, they force the Broncos to touch the ball starting the clock. They need to run the kick back for a TD or get out of bounds before the 5 seconds run out in order to run one more play from scrimmage.
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In other words, the Bengals were WRONG to score the TD in regulation. They should have taken as much off the clock after the injury as possible then kicked the FG. All the automatic injury TO did was leave the Broncos with :05 on a kickoff return which is extremely unlikely to allow them to kick a FG to tie or score TD on the KOR.
.
But QB Burrows got a TD. That is actually WRONG. 1:29 left for Broncos to come back and tie or win. Bengals LOWERED their win probability by getting the TD instead of running the clock down as far as possible then kicking the FG.
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Broncos get TD with :08 left. Told ya. PAT good. Tie game. In OT, Bengals can win with a 33-yard FG. It hits the upright. Now 2:44 left. In their next possession, Bengals get a TD winning the game.
.
QB Burrows allowed the game to go into OT. Had he not done that, he almost certainly would have won the game in regulation
.
Now, let me address the issue of avoiding the OT entirely by running the game clock down as far as possible in regulation before the likely go-ahead FG.
.
The guy who got hurt stopping at the one-yard line (Brown) stopped the clock. That was bad if it could have been avoided. He stopped it by getting hurt and staying on the ground thereby triggering an automatic Bengals time out, their final one. That saved the Broncos from using their one remaining time out.
.
So the announcer is saying that Burrows needed to score the TD because the one remaining Broncos timeout would have prevented the Bengals from running the clock down to :03.
.
Well, let’s see about that. But first, why does the ability to call one time out mean Bengals must score a TD. Even if they could not run the clock all the way down to :03 for the FG attempt. Even running it down to say :30 would make it harder for the Bengals to get into either FG range for a tie or to score a TD to win.
.
So after the TO for the Bengals RB injury, it was second and goal at the Denver 1. 1:31 left. If Bengals take and knee and Broncos use their last TO, clock runs down to say 1:28. 3rd down take a knee clock runs down 40 seconds to :48 Bengals take another knee running the clock down to :45, fourth down and 40 second play clock is running. When the game clock gets to :08, kicker calls for the snap and kicks the FG using about three seconds and taking the game clock down to :05. Bengals now have the lead and must kickoff to Broncos with :05 left on the game clock.
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In other words, the Bengals were WRONG to score the TD in regulation. They should have taken as much off the clock after the injury as possible then kicked the FG. All the automatic injury TO did was leave the Broncos with :05 on a kickoff return which is extremely unlikely to allow them to kick a FG to tie or score TD on the KOR.
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